Monday 4
2.1.b. Demography, international population mobility and migrations II (Sándor Illés)

› 16:30 - 16:50 (20min)
Assessment of international migration trends
Ferenc Urbán  1@  
1 : Hungarian Central Statistical Office  (HCSO)  -  Website
1024 Bp. Keleti Károly u. 5-7. -  Hongrie

Currently Europe finds itself in a so called “migration crisis” which phrase can be hear from politicians of different countries, it is another fact to decide whether it is a real crisis or it is just the perception of us, European citizens, because if we examine the facts, higher volume of international migration can be experienced on other continents.

As a matter of fact it is essential to assess the migration trends in order to know more about the migration processes and be able to forecast future trends as far as possible. In my presentation I would like to describe the methods of analysis of international migration, beginning from the data collection techniques about migration in the European Union.

After introducing the participants of the conference to the basic statistical data collection systems in the European Union I am going to lay special focus on the cooperation of institutions in the European Union which deal with statistical data collection and validation (e.g. Eurostat, EASO, Frontex).

In order to deliver reliable recommendations to the stakeholders first, it is inevitable to use appropriate data collection methods but the data collection is not enough we must be able to draw well-based conclusions from the statistical data. The compilation of conclusions means to have suitable methods for the analysis of international migration.

In my presentation I also would like to show upon example of some countries their approaches to the migration analysis. In this presentation I am going to make a comparison of the different migration analysis systems and introduce the audience of the conference to the best practices of migration analysis.

Migration analysis means a system which is a standing mechanisms for migration-related data and information gathering in order to analyse current migration flows, assess future developments of migration flows, support migration policy development and day-to-day migration management and allow for the exchange of data and information between national entities and between states.

The development of migration prognoses means a huge challenge because migration flows constitute heterogeneous phenomena being influenced by a variety of different factors. Migrants from a given country or region do not necessarily form a homogenous group when it comes to migration patterns.

Size and direction of some types of migration e.g. irregular migration flows are more difficult to analyse or anticipate. First, irregular migration is a hidden phenomenon, which tries to elude the authorities of countries of destination, transit or origin. Consequently, there are hardly any robust statistics on irregular migration as a whole but rather a number of statistical indicators linked to the phenomenon.

It has to be emphasised that in a public policy approach it is possible to distinguish between regular and irregular migration but for the analytical purposes it is suggested to see migration as a process where the migrant can change his/her status, for example from a regular migrant he/she can became an irregular migrant (e.g. over-stayers whose visa expired) and vice versa an irregular migrant can became regular (e.g. his/her country of origin could join the EU and in this case his/her status also changes from migrant to beneficiary of the free movement).

The development of quality policy responses to migration challenges depends amongst others on an adequate analysis of current migration realities in combination with realistic assessments of future developments.

The principle methodologies for migration analysis systems are: monitoring, early warning systems, analysis, in-depth research, prognosis and forecast, and scenarios.

Monitoring refers to the continued observation of developments on the basis of defined indicators. Early Warning Systems are defined as systems of data collection and analysis to monitor specific situations and to provide timely notice when an emergency situation threatens in order to allow for a timely response.

In-depth research might be necessary to fully understand the findings of monitoring and analysis of subjects under question.

Contrary to forecasts or prognoses on pre-determined developments scenarios provide a number of likely developments deduced from a robust data and information base.

My presentation aims at introducing the audience of the conference in the concepts and practice of migration analysis in the European Union according to best practices of some selected countries.

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