Programme > By author > Klemensits Péter

Forecasting the future is like a mission impossible, but experts still try to make long term prognoses based on the experiences of the past and present. One of the big questions relating to the future of Europe and the world is the security environment outlook which will greatly influence the living standards of our planet still in 50 years time. In the field of the security policy numerous tendency can be identified, which have to be taken into account by the decision-makers, because the consequences will be perceptible decades later as well.

This presentation will start off with a summary of the world in 2050, foreboding the rise of the Global South (China, India, Russia, Brazil and Indonesia) and the decrease of the US hegemony. Then it will review the possible future of the great alliances like the NATO and the nation-states in the changed international system alike. The countries ruling the world oceans presumably will retain their economic, political, and military dominance, but in the long term the US-China rivalry will have serious consequences for the fate of the world. The presentation will then discuss in detail the tendencies of the global military expenditures, military development, then the possible military conflicts and its reasons. I will argue that for 2050 only the US and China will be able to procure the most modern military equipment, while the European countries will increasingly lagging behind. Some studies claim that in the middle of the 21st century mainly from economic reasons there will be fewer military conflicts than at the present time, but others opine that mainly in Africa and Asia due to the water scarcity and overpopulation the conflicts will become more and more frequent. As a conclusion, we can claim that in 2050 the world might be better than now, but not as peaceful as some people would hope.